Electricity consumption and economic growth in Algeria: A multivariate causality analysis in the presence of structural change

This article addresses the issue of electricity consumption, petroleum price and economic growth in Algeria. The primary objective is to investigate and analyze the causal relationship between electricity consumption (EC), Brent oil price (BOP) and economic growth (GDP) for Algeria over the period of 1971–2010. To examine short-run, long-run and joint causality relationships we used a multivariate cointegration approach based on the recent advances in time series econometrics (e.g., Zivot–Andrews test; Gregory–Hansen cointegration test; Vector Error Correction Models (VECM)). The empirical results show that there is evidence of short-run and a strong long-run bi-directional causal relationship between EC and real GDP in Algeria. Findings indicate also the absence of causal relationship between BOP and EC. Our empirical findings support the idea that there a link between electricity consumption and economic growth and disproves the neo-classical assumption referred to as the "neutrality hypothesis". - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationships between EC, GDP and BOP of Algeria. ► We used a multivariate approach based on ZA, Gregory–Hansen and Granger tests. ► There is a short-run bi-directional relationship between EC and GDP of Algeria. ► Results also substantiate a strong long-run bi-directional causality between EC and GDP. ► Findings disprove the assumption referred to as the neutrality hypothesis