Managing potential conflicts in the South China Sea

The strategic significance of the South China Sea (SCS) is beyond doubt. The four workshops conducted so far have discussed a wide range of issues and areas for possible cooperation, instead of focusing on the factors-sovereignty and territorial claims-for conflict. They have shown the potential for such cooperation. Various proposals offered and the principles enunciated offer sufficient evidence for this. By expanding cooperation on less contentious issues on the basis of common interest and mutual benefit, an atmosphere more conducive to productive negotiations has been created. Such informal meetings and contacts can continue to play an important part in clarifying the issues involved and in furthering the regional marine agenda. These workshops are virtually risk-free for the Governments concerned; in fact, they could benefit from the plethora of proposals and recommendations that have emanated from these endeavours, which have also created a more cooperative environment for dialogue among the SCS States. In sum, the workshop process is a novel approach to conflict prevention and avoidance. Yet some pertinent questions need to be raised. Where do we go from here? Will the numerous proposals and recommendations discussed at length simply be filed? Do the SCS States have the necessary political will to implement them in a spirit of cooperation and compromise? Hence, the issue of formal meetings, institutions and/or mechanisms should now be considered. The role of such structures, possibly modelled on the experience gained by Western Europe and the South Pacific, where agencies have been established for designated areas to act on behalf of the regional States, warrants serious attention. What is called for at this juncture is the concretization of specific cooperative projects of a non-controversial nature. Such endeavours would ultimately lead to a 'sense of community' among the littoral States. However, cooperation for resource exploitation does not appear promising owing to the multiplicity of claimants, whose disposition to make the necessary compromises and concessions would be indispensable. Ultimately, a regional solution based on consensus would be essential