How propane supply and demand in North America affects prices in Alberta

Total North American demand for propane in 1999 was estimated at 1,700 MBPD, of which 1,300 MBPD represents demand by the United States. World-wide demand is about 3,500 MBPD, Europe and the Mid East combined, and Asia, each accounting for 800 to 850 MBPD. The United States is able to supply about 1,000 MBPD of its own demand ; the rest comes from imports. Total imports make up about 12 per cent of the U.S. supply; in 1999 just over 80 per cent, or about 120 MBPD of the imported propane came from Canada. The volume of export from Canada to the United states is expected to rise to about 170 MBPD, or 86 per cent of the total domestic supply shortfall in 2000. Prices at Edmonton ranged between 35 cents per gallon in Jan 1997, to about 42 cents per gallon in January 2000; during much of this period (from July 1997 to July 1999) the price was below 30 cents per gallon and as low as about 15 cents per gallon in January 1999. The price differential between Edmonton and Conway (the receiving point in the United States) was an average of 6 cents (US) per gallon. Total U.S. propane inventories during the same period and propane inventories against heating degree days and Conway propane prices are also shown in graphic form. The various graphs illustrate that in general, the price of propane at any given time is heavily influenced by the price of crude oil, however, in the short term competing fuels, weather conditions and inventory levels also play a part in determining prices. With regard to the future, a bullish outlook envisages flat to current prices, whereas a bearish outlook forecasts lower prices due to softening of the world economy, high U.S. and Canadian inventories, and the possibility of another warm winter. 18 viewgraphs