Development of SYVAC sampling techniques

This report describes the requirements of a sampling scheme for use with the SYVAC radiological assessment model. The constraints on the number of samples that may be taken is considered. The conclusions from earlier studies using the deterministic generator sampling scheme are summarised. The method of Importance Sampling and a High Dose algorithm, which are designed to preferentially sample in the high dose region of the parameter space, are reviewed in the light of experience gained from earlier studies and the requirements of a site assessment and sensitivity analyses. In addition the use of an alternative numerical integration method for estimating risk is discussed. It is recommended that the method of Importance Sampling is developed and tested for use with SYVAC. An alternative numerical integration method is not recommended for investigation at this stage but should be the subject of future work. (author)