Development of a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Pyroprocessing Safeguardability

Advanced nuclear energy systems offer benefits for energy sustainability, independence, security, economic growth, and carbon emission reduction. Nuclear fuel fabricated for these systems utilize remotely-handled facilities for batch processing in hot cells. Because special nuclear material is in both different physical and chemical form than that of the contemporary fuel cycle, new challenges arise in terms of safeguardability. To that end, we are developing a system model for a commercial pyroprocessing facility that can also produce quantitative metrics to assess facility design. This paper presents the progress of a first build of a material throughput model using discrete event simulation for the fuel fabrication subsystem. The intent is to study the Type I error, or false alarm, as a metric for safeguardability. Initiating events that could cause false alarms arise from safeguards, safety, and security. False alarms can necessitate a facility shutdown until the anomaly is resolved by facility inspection. A high number would be costly for the facility operator both in terms of operation throughput goals and possible compensatory penalties. Therefore, different conceptual facility designs exhibit different frequencies for the false alarm per initiating event, and this can provide a measure of the safeguardability of each design. (authors)