Optimal unit sizing for small-scale integrated energy systems using multi-objective interval optimization and evidential reasoning approach

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework including a multi-objective interval optimization model and evidential reasoning (ER) approach to solve the unit sizing problem of small-scale integrated energy systems, with uncertain wind and solar energies integrated. In the multi-objective interval optimization model, interval variables are introduced to tackle the uncertainties of the optimization problem. Aiming at simultaneously considering the cost and risk of a business investment, the average and deviation of life cycle cost (LCC) of the integrated energy system are formulated. In order to solve the problem, a novel multi-objective optimization algorithm, MGSOACC (multi-objective group search optimizer with adaptive covariance matrix and chaotic search), is developed, employing adaptive covariance matrix to make the search strategy adaptive and applying chaotic search to maintain the diversity of group. Furthermore, ER approach is applied to deal with multiple interests of an investor at the business decision making stage and to determine the final unit sizing solution from the Pareto-optimal solutions. This paper reports on the simulation results obtained using a small-scale direct district heating system (DH) and a small-scale district heating and cooling system (DHC) optimized by the proposed framework. The results demonstrate the superiority of the multi-objective interval optimization model and ER approach in tackling the unit sizing problem of integrated energy systems considering the integration of uncertian wind and solar energies. - Highlights: • Cost and risk of investment in small-scale integrated energy systems are considered. • A multi-objective interval optimization model is presented. • A novel multi-objective optimization algorithm (MGSOACC) is proposed. • The evidential reasoning (ER) approach is used to obtain the final optimal solution. • The MGSOACC and ER can tackle the unit sizing problem efficiently.