Development of a health effects based priority ranking system for air emissions reductions from oil refineries in Canada

This paper presents the concept and methodologies behind the development of a health effects priority ranking tool for the reduction of air emissions from oil refineries. The Health Effects Indicators Decision Index- Versions 2 (Heidi II) was designed to assist policy makers in prioritizing air emissions reductions on the basis of estimated risk to human health. Inputs include facility level rankings of potential health impacts associated with carcinogenic air toxics, non-carcinogenic air toxics and criteria air contaminants for each of the 20 refineries in Canada. Rankings of estimated health impacts are presented on predicted incidence of health effects. Heidi II considers site-specific annual pollutant emission data, ambient air concentrations associated with releases and concentration response functions for various types of health effects. Additional data includes location specific background air concentrations, site-specific population densities, and the baseline incidence of different health effects endpoints, such as cancer, non-cancer illnesses and cardiorespiratory illnesses and death. Air pollutants include the 29 air toxics reported annually in Environment Canada's National Pollutant Release Inventory. Three health impact ranking outputs are provided for each facility: ranking of pollutants based on predicted number of annual cases of health effects; ranking of pollutants based on simplified Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); and ranking of pollutants based on more complex DALYs that consider types of cancer, systemic disease or types of cardiopulmonary health effects. Rankings rely on rough statistical estimates of predicted incidence rates for health endpoints. The models used to calculate rankings can provide useful guidance by comparing estimated health impacts. Heidi II has demonstrated that it is possible to develop a consistent and objective approach for ranking priority reductions of air emissions. Heidi II requires numerous types and sources of data to produce valid results. Careful attention to the underlying model assumptions and their limitations must be maintained in order to avoid inappropriate conclusions based on excessive reliance on a single decision tool