Estimation of inspection effort

An overview of IAEA inspection activities is presented, and the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of an inspection is discussed. Two models are described - an effort model and an effectiveness model. The effort model breaks the IAEA's inspection effort into components; the amount of effort required for each component is estimated; and the total effort is determined by summing the effort for each component. The effectiveness model quantifies the effectiveness of inspections in terms of probabilities of detection and quantities of material to be detected, if diverted over a specific period. The method is applied to a 200 metric ton per year low-enriched uranium fuel fabrication facility. A description of the model plant is presented, a safeguards approach is outlined, and sampling plans are calculated. The required inspection effort is estimated and the results are compared to IAEA estimates. Some other applications of the method are discussed briefly. Examples are presented which demonstrate how the method might be useful in formulating guidelines for inspection planning and in establishing technical criteria for safeguards implementation