Poker face of inelastic dark matter: Prospects at upcoming direct detection experiments

The XENON100 and CRESST experiments will directly test the inelastic dark matter explanation for DAMA's 8.9σ anomaly. This article discusses how predictions for direct detection experiments depend on uncertainties in quenching factor measurements, the dark matter interaction with the standard model, and the halo velocity distribution. When these uncertainties are accounted for, an order of magnitude variation is found in the number of expected events at CRESST and XENON100.