A prediction method based on grey system theory in equipment condition based maintenance

Grey prediction is a modeling method based on historical or present, known or indefinite information, which can be used for forecasting the development of the eigenvalues of the targeted equipment system and setting up the model by using less information. In this paper, the postulate of grey system theory, which includes the grey generating, the sorts of grey generating and the grey forecasting model, is introduced first. The concrete application process, which includes the grey prediction modeling, grey prediction, error calculation, equal dimension and new information approach, is introduced secondly. Application of a so-called 'Equal Dimension and New Information' (EDNI) technology in grey system theory is adopted in an application case, aiming at improving the accuracy of prediction without increasing the amount of calculation by replacing old data with new ones. The proposed method can provide a new way for solving the problem of eigenvalue data exploding in equal distance effectively, short time interval and real time prediction. The proposed method, which was based on historical or present, known or indefinite information, was verified by the vibration prediction of induced draft fan of a boiler of the Yantai Power Station in China, and the results show that the proposed method based on grey system theory is simple and provides a high accuracy in prediction. So, it is very useful and significant to the controlling and controllable management in safety production. (authors)