Towards predicting wading bird densities from predicted prey densities in a post-barrage Severn estuary

A winter survey of seven species of wading birds in six estuaries in south-west England was made to develop a method for predicting bird densities should a tidal power barrage be built on the Severn estuary. Within most estuaries, bird densities correlated with the densities of widely taken prey species. A barrage would substantially reduce the area of intertidal flats available at low water for the birds to feed but the invertebrate density could increase in the generally more benign post-barrage environmental conditions. Wader densities would have to increase approximately twofold to allow the same overall numbers of birds to remain post-barrage as occur on the Severn at present. Provisional estimates are given of the increases in prey density required to allow bird densities to increase by this amount. With the exception of the prey of dunlin, these fall well within the ranges of densities found in other estuaries, and so could in principle be attained in the post-barrage Severn. An attempt was made to derive equations with which to predict post-barrage densities of invertebrates from easily measured, static environmental variables. The fact that a site was in the Severn had a significant additional effect on invertebrate density in seven cases. This suggests that there is a special feature of the Severn, probably one associated with its highly dynamic nature. This factor must be identified if the post-barrage densities of invertebrates are to be successful predicted. (author)