The effect of system modeling on the Fukushima accident evolution

The Fukushima accident is becoming both a unique opportunity and a huge challenge for severe accident analysis. The OECD-BSAF project has articulated a good part of the modeling efforts conducted so far. Inside this project, CIEMAT has conducted forensic analyses of the Fukushima accident in units 1 through 3 with MELCOR 2.1 and it has postulated a set of accident scenarios consistent with data. Beyond specific results, sensitivity analyses on safety systems performance and prevailing boundary conditions have highlighted the need of conducting uncertainty analyses when modeling NPPs severe accident scenarios. (Author)