A field-based model of the relationship between extirpation of salt-intolerant benthic invertebrates and background conductivity

Highlights: • Salinization of fresh water is inexpensively measured as specific conductivity (SC). • Loss of taxa are predictable using a model and an estimate of background SC. • The model can be used to identify protective SC thresholds. • The method is applicable anywhere with an estimate of background SC. Field-collected measures of dissolved salts and occurrences of aquatic invertebrates have been used to develop protective levels. However, sufficiently large field data sets of exposures and biota are often not available. Therefore, a model was developed to predict the exposure extirpating 5% of benthic invertebrate genera using only measures of specific conductivity (SC) as the independent variable. The model is based on 3 assumptions: (1) a genus will rarely occur where the background exceeds its upper physiological limit; (2) the lowest possible tolerance limit of a genus in a region is defined by the natural background; and (3) as a result, there will be a regular association between natural background SC and the SC at which salt-intolerant genera are present. Three steps were used to develop the model. First, background SC was characterized as the 25th centile of sampled sites for each of 24 areas in the United States with streams dominated by bicarbonate and sulfate ions. Second, the extirpation concentration (XC₉₅), an estimate of the upper tolerance limit with respect to SC, was calculated for genera in 24 data sets. Next, the lower 5th centile of each set of XC₉₅ values (XCD₀₅) was identified for the most salt-intolerant members in each data set. Finally, the relationship between the 24 background SC and the 24 XCD₀₅ values was empirically modeled to develop a background-to-criterion model. The least squares regression of XCD₀₅ values on log background SC (log Y = 0.658logX + 1.071) yields a strong linear relationship (r = 0.93). The regression model makes it possible to use SC background to predict the SC likely to extirpate the most salt-intolerant genera in an area. The results also suggest that species distribute along natural background gradients of SC and that this relationship can be used to develop criteria for ionic concentration.