Effectiveness and political economy of climate change mitigation policies at the urban scale

Urbanization is one of the most defining traits of the 21. century with people flocking to cities in massive numbers in developing countries. Given the inertia and path dependence that urban forms display, there is a strong need to get urbanization right today. One key aspect is to ensure low-carbon and sustainable urban futures and avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins, in particular for emissions stemming from urban transport. Technology in the form of more efficient vehicles and alternative fuels currently does not seem to be able to achieve this goal alone. And as urban transport CO₂ emissions are partially a by-product of urban forms; land-use, housing and transport policies are increasingly recognized as important levers to curb transport demand and promote soft and collective transport modes which contribute to emission mitigation. However important, reducing CO₂ emissions is but one of city policy makers' objectives: acting on poverty, providing basic services and access to affordable housing to name a few are equally important. So that policies aiming to reduce emissions, that would jeopardize other goals or result in lower welfare levels (mainly through higher housing costs) have low chances of being accepted and implemented. Successful urban transport climate policies need to be both effective and politically acceptable. Starting from this assessment, this dissertation investigates how a subset of urban, land and transport policies and investments can contribute to curb transport-related CO₂ emissions and what are the welfare consequences for households in urban areas. This is done through the development, calibration and application of a micro-economically founded land use - transport model (NEDUM-2D) to real-world urban areas. (author)