A multi-particle model applicable to social issues--time-evolution of Japanese public opinion on nuclear energy

The characteristics of an interacting multi-particle system in natural sciences can form a useful model for the evolution of public attitudes and opinions, provided that each particle corresponds to one individual. A simulation model which uses a multi-particle system to represent society was developed. By using this model, the time evolution of the public attitudes to nuclear energy were investigated. The nuclear attitude of an individual was assumed to be influenced by three factors: a uniform information environment, mutual interactions between members of the public, and spontaneous recovery of the original attitude with time. Also the time-evolution of the socio-psychological position of members of the public was assumed to be given by a Langevin-type equation. Various attributes of individuals obtained by public opinion surveys together with data on the secular variation of availability of nuclear information were used as the input. By numerically solving the simultaneous differential equations for the system of a 1000 particles, the time behavior of Japanese public opinion regarding the promotion of nuclear generation was investigated. It was found from this calculation that the public aversion to nuclear energy is catastrophically aggravated with every large-scale nuclear accident, that the opinions of individual members of the public as to the value of nuclear energy were gradually attracted to a few views with time, and that the unification of such views occurred with the Chernobyl accident as a promoter. It also became clear that the public attitude at a particular time is governed by the information environment over several years immediately prior to that time