Predicting Public Acceptability in Controversial Technologies

Technology and society have a synergic relationship. New technologies are a product of the values and aspirations of the culture in which they emerge. In turn, each new technology shapes and alters these values and aspirations, to a greater or lesser degree. The acceptance by society of any particular technology depends, however, on how far the values embodied in the technology reflect those of the wider society, or only those of some privileged sector - perhaps a ruling elite, a group of academic researchers, a commercial company, or even a special interest group. As public disquiet about controversial technologies has grown, their acceptance can no longer be taken for granted. It is now becoming more important to evaluate in advance the degree of likely mismatch between the aspirations of the technologists and the values of society. This paper explores one approach to making this evaluation, based on the notion of a conditional social contract between technology and society. A given society may be prepared to embrace a new technology to deliver certain benefits, and may accept a certain degree of risk and adaptation of life styles, provided certain basic conditions are fulfilled. These conditions include the upholding of basic values, familiarity, how it compares with similar technologies, the degree of control and choice, trust in those in control, the nature of any risks, the tangible benefits, and the media profile given to the new area. If several of these factors are not fulfilled, the technology is unlikely to be accepted. This was dramatically illustrated in the UK public reaction to food products derived from imported US GM soya and maize. These failed nearly all the conditions, so that public rejection should have been seen as a foregone conclusion. In the light of this, the likely public reaction to a number of future biotechnological innovations is assessed, based on the same conditions. Some examples taken from the energy sector are also compared. The notion of an acceptance profile is derived, and suggestions are made how this could be used to find collaborative modes of technology planning