External validation of an ${}^{18}$F-FDG-PET radiomic model predicting survival after radiotherapy for oropharyngeal cancer

The purpose of the study is to externally validate published ${}^{18}$F-FDG-PET radiomic models for outcome prediction in patients with oropharyngeal cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy. Outcome data and pre-radiotherapy PET images of 100 oropharyngeal cancer patients (stage IV:78) treated with concomitant chemotherapy to 66-69 Gy/30 fr were available. Tumors were segmented using a previously validated semi-automatic method; 450 radiomic features (RF) were extracted according to IBSI (Image Biomarker Standardization Initiative) guidelines. Only one model for cancer-specific survival (CSS) prediction was suitable to be independently tested, according to our criteria. This model, in addition to HPV status, SUVmean and SUVmax, included two independent meta-factors (F${}_i$), resulting from combining selected RF clusters. In a subgroup of 66 patients with complete HPV information, the global risk score R was computed considering the original coefficients and was tested by Cox regression as predictive of CSS. Independently, only the radiomic risk score R${}_F$ derived from F${}_i$ was tested on the same subgroup to learn about the radiomics contribution to the model. The metabolic tumor volume (MTV) was also tested as a single predictor and its prediction performances were compared to the global and radiomic models. Finally, the validation of MTV and the radiomic score R${}_F$ were also tested on the entire dataset. Regarding the analysis of the subgroup with HPV information, with a median follow-up of 41.6 months, seven patients died due to cancer. R was confirmed to be associated to CSS (p value = 0.05) with a C-index equal 0.75 (95% CI=0.62-0.85). The best cut-off value (equal to 0.15) showed high ability in patient stratification (p=0.01, HR=7.4, 95% CI=1.6-11.4). The 5-year CSS for R were 97% (95% CI: 93-100%) vs 74% (56-92%) for low- and high-risk groups, respectively. R${}_F$ and MTV alone were also significantly associated to CSS for the subgroup with an almost identical C-index. According to best cut-off value (R${}_F$ > 0.12 and MTV > 15.5cc), the 5-year CSS were 96% (95% CI: 89-100%) vs 65% (36-94%) and 97% (95% CI: 88-100%) vs 77% (58-93%) for RF and MTV, respectively. Results regarding RF and MTV were confirmed in the overall group. A previously published PET radiomic model for CSS prediction was independently validated. Performances of the model were similar to the ones of using only the MTV, without improvement of prediction accuracy.