Development of an integrated energy concept: survey of the potential for reducing emissions of climate-influencing trace gases through efficient utilisation in the old Laender. Sector traffic

If CO2 emissions are to be reduced on account of their major contribution to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, as planned, for example, by the Federal Government, then a key role will have to be assigned to the traffic sector because this is the only sector whose energy consumption and consequent CO2 emissions is relentlessly increasing. This forms the background to the present study's intent of sketching out possible routes of development of the traffic system in the old Laender. Three scenarios having particular regard to traffic-related CO2 emissions are presented. The study is based on the reference years 1987, 2005, and 2020; its scope is defined by the so-called inland concept. The scenario calculations are based on, firstly, a detailed quantitative survey of the West German traffic system in 1987 as the starting year and, secondly, a dp-supported traffic model that is capable of generating a scenario and describes traffic systems in terms of parameters such as traffic volume and CO2 emissions taking interdependencies with other energy consuming sectors into account. Working from a general transsectoral scenario formulation, measures appropriate to the respective framework conditions governing the three scenarios 'Business as usual' (BAU), 'Efficiency', and 'Ecologically structured policy' are defined and the resulting effects on the individual elements of the traffic system are assessed. The results of the subsequently performed scenario calculations largely consist of detailed, absolute, traffic-volume-specific CO2 emission values for each reference year. (orig.)