Impacts of climate change on migration flows by 2030 - Report nr 1 - May 2016

The authors first define and discuss the relationship between migrations and climate change: characteristics and evolutions of environment-related migrations, how climate change generated migrations, main climate evolutions by 2030, and main impacts (uncertainties, impacts on human systems, natural disasters, sea level rise, hydric stress, adaptation as an adjustment variable). They discuss an assessment of concerned populations: demographic growth by 2030, vulnerability to climate changes, migration potential by 2030 (according to the different impacts). They address stakes related to the management of climate-related migrations: political context (development of political extremisms and of legal nationalism, 'environmentalization' of migrations), the taking of the climate-migrations relationship into account by regional and local authorities, management of environment-related migrations (crisis management, management of recurring hazards, proactive management). They report two case studies: Algeria-Morocco (how climate change can strengthen their status of transit countries), and Senegal (how climate change will impact mobility in West Africa). Some recommendations are finally stated