China's economic reform and industry sector energy requirement: A forecast to 2015

With its GDP growing at an average rate of 9.8% for the last seventeen years, China has the world's fastest growing economy. This rapid pace of growth and industrialization has caused economic strain because fuel production cannot keep pace with demand, If China allows this situation to continue, significant oil imports will be necessary. In 1993, the industrial sector contributed 56% to China's GDP and consumed 61% of the total final energy. The industrial sector will remain the largest energy consumer in China well into the next century. According to China's Ninth Five-Year Plan (1996--2000), China will strengthen its ability to develop new products and will use technological advancement to promote industrial development. The Plan calls for special attention in four major areas: microelectronics technology, digital technology, software technology, and network technology. Given China's emphasis on developing light industries and on improving industrial sector energy efficiency, it is important to study the future energy demand of the industrial sector. Two scenarios for future energy requirements are studied through the year 2015: a Business As Usual (BASU) scenario and an Energy Efficient (EE) scenario. The study evaluates China's current economic reform policies and energy efficiency policies. The results of this evaluation are used to assign appropriate growth rates to industrial GDP and the industrial energy intensity for both scenarios. Results from the two scenarios are compared and analyzed