Published 2011 | Version v1
Journal article

p-values for model evaluation

  • 1. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany)
  • 2. CERN, Genf (Switzerland)
  • 3. Georg-August-Universitaet, Goettingen (Germany)

Description

In the analysis of experimental results it is often necessary to pass a judgment on the validity of a model as a representation of the data. A quantitative procedure to decide whether a model provides a good description of data is often based on a specific test statistic and a p-value summarizing both the data and the statistic's sampling distribution. Although there is considerable confusion concerning the meaning of p-values, leading to their misuse, they are nevertheless of practical importance in common data analysis tasks. We motivate the application of p-values using a Bayesian argumentation. We then describe commonly and less commonly known test statistics and how they are used to define p-values. The distribution of these are then extracted for examples modeled on typical new physics searches in high energy physics. We comment on their usefulness for determining goodness-of-fit and highlight some common pitfalls.

Additional details

Publishing Information

Journal Title
Verhandlungen der Deutschen Physikalischen Gesellschaft
Journal Issue
Karlsruhe 2011 issue
Series
Also available as printed version: Verhandlungen der Deutschen Physikalischen Gesellschaft v. 46(3)
Journal Page Range
[1 p.]
ISSN
0420-0195
CODEN
VDPEAZ

Conference

Title
2011 Spring meeting of the DPG with the professional associations gravitation and theory of relativity, particle physics, theoretical and mathematical fundamentals of the physics
Original Conference Title
DPG Fruehjahrstagung 2011 der Fachverbaende Gravitation und Relativitaetstheorie, Teilchenphysik, Theoretische und Mathematische Grundlagen der Physik
Dates
28 Mar - 1 Apr 2011
Place
Karlsruhe (Germany)

INIS

Country of Publication
Germany
Country of Input or Organization
Germany
INIS RN
44008090
Subject category
S97: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING;
Resource subtype / Literary indicator
Conference
Descriptors DEI
COUNTING TECHNIQUES; DATA ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD FIT; STATISTICS
Descriptors DEC
MATHEMATICAL SOLUTIONS; MATHEMATICS; NUMERICAL SOLUTION

Optional Information

Notes
Session: T 78.3 Mo 17:15; No further information available