Duration rather than frequency of hypoxia causes mass mortality in ark shells (Anadara kagoshimensis)

Highlights: • Mathematical modeling analyzes how hypoxia duration affects ark shell survival. • The simulated population density decreases with prolonged hypoxia. • Hypoxia is the main cause of mass mortality in ark shells. • Mass mortality is caused by hypoxia duration rather than hypoxia frequency. - Abstract: Hypoxia is associated with mass mortality in estuaries, but a direct causal relationship has not been proven to date. This study aimed to demonstrate this relationship and to evaluate how the duration of hypoxia affects the survival of ark shells (Anadara kagoshimensis) using mathematical modeling. The dissolved oxygen concentration was monitored at two stations in the innermost area of Ariake Bay, Japan, to calculate the duration of hypoxia. This was then included in a mathematical model to simulate the population density with sequential computation. The population density decreased with prolonged hypoxia, reaching a value close to the observed population density, indicating that hypoxia is the main cause of mass mortality in ark shells. Furthermore, the ark shell population disappeared in 8 days with constant hypoxia but persisted when hypoxia was alternated with normoxia every 6 h. Therefore, mass mortality is caused by the duration rather than the frequency of hypoxia.