Study on Sensitivity Analysis of the Shares of NG1/NG2 Country Groups in Gains Scenarios. Annex XV

The current study is based on widely used and recommended framework developed in the INPRO GAINS collaborative project. The GAINS framework classifies non-personified countries into three country groups according to their nuclear fuel cycle strategies: NG1 countries pursue fast reactor programme and perform recycling of SNF; NG2 countries either directly dispose of the SNF or send it to NG1 for reprocessing; and NG3 countries are LWR based newcomer countries that send the SNF back to NG1 or NG2. The analysis methodology in this study is based on varying the allocation of future nuclear energy generation share of each country group as function of time for assessment of different scenarios, in comparison to the GAINS studies where the NG1:NG2:NG3 ratio was kept fixed at 40:40:20. The objective of this sensitivity analysis is to study the behavior of global nuclear energy system in terms of its key parameters and stress limits under variations in country group shares. The GIANS framework was employed for investigating impact of various growth rates of NGs. This study explores possibility of transition of NG1 and NG2 groups under changes in NG1:NG2 proportion. The study also assesses impact of NG3 share variation on NG1/NG2 front end and back end fuel cycle requirements. Description and major details of GAINS approach for dynamic NES modelling are provided in appendix 3.