Published 1977 | Version v1
Report Restricted

What if mankind warms the earth

Creators

  • 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo. (USA)

Description

There are a variety of human activities that are being pursued on such a large scale that they may influence regional and global climate. Virtually all of these activities, including the addition of carbon dioxide and particles to the atmosphere, are expected on theoretical grounds to cause an increase in mean surface temperature in the decades ahead, and by 2000 AD the total warming effect will probably be larger than any of the natural climate fluctuations during the past 1,000 years or more. It is therefore pertinent ot inquire what a warmer earth might be like; and to obtain a first rough answer we turn to our mathematical models of the atmosphere, and also to the conditions that have been deduced for the period about 4,000 to 8,000 years ago when the earth was apparently several degress warmer the now. Atan now. At that time some areas that are now subtropical deserts received more rainfall, and there were other areas in the middle latitudes that were drier. There are several important implications for society if mankind does succeed in warming the earth - and a number of still unanswered questions as well. (orig.)

Availability note (English)

MF available from INIS under the Report Number.

Abstract (German)

Es gibt eine Vielzahl menschlicher Taetigkeiten, die in einem solch grossen Stil durchgefuehrt werden, dass sie das regionale und globale Klima beeinflussen koennen. Praktisch alle diese Taetigkeiten, einschliesslich der Einleitung von Kohlendioxid und Feststoffpartikeln in die Atmosphaere, duerften aus theoretischen Gruenden in den naechsten Jahrzehnten zu einem Anstieg der mittleren Oberflaechentemperaturen fuehren, und um das Jahr 2000 wird der totale Aufheizeffekt wahrscheinlich groesser sein, als jede natuerliche Klimaschwankung waehrend der letzten 1.000 oder mehr Jahre. Daher ist es angemessen zu fragen, wie eine waermere Erde aussehen wuerde; und um eine erste grobe Antwort zu bekommen, wenden wir uns unseren mathematischen Modellen der Atmosphaere sowie den Bedingungen, die fuer die Zeit von vor ungefaehr 4.000 bis 8.000 Jahren, als die Erde offenbar einige Grad waermer war als jetzt, abgeleitet wurden, zu. Zu jener Zeit erhielten einige Gebiete, die jetzt subtropische Wuesten sind, mehr Niederschlaege, und es gab andere Gebiete in mittleren Breiten, die trockener waren. Es gibt einige wichtige Konsequenzen fuer die Gesellschaft, wenn es der Menschheit gelingt, die Erde aufzuwaermen - und ausserdem eine Reihe noch unbeantworteter Fragen. (orig.)

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Additional details

Publishing Information

Imprint Pagination
20 p.
Report number
AED-Conf--77-002-003

Conference

Title
2. international fair and congress on techniques in environmental protection.
Dates
8 - 10 Feb 1977.
Place
Duesseldorf, Germany, F.R.

INIS

Country of Publication
Germany
Country of Input or Organization
Germany
INIS RN
8315192
Subject category
S58: GEOSCIENCES;
Resource subtype / Literary indicator
Conference
Descriptors DEI
ABSORPTION; AIR POLLUTION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATES; DUSTS; EARTH ATMOSPHERE; RADIATIONS; WEATHER
Descriptors DEC
CARBON COMPOUNDS; CARBON OXIDES; CHALCOGENIDES; OXIDES; OXYGEN COMPOUNDS; POLLUTION

Optional Information

Notes
3 figs.; 1 tab.; 51 refs.