Uranium supply

This chapter considers first the features which determine the special nature of the uranium market, discussing briefly how these have interacted in the past. It highlights the importance that Government initiatives can have in altering the natural interplay between demand and supply. The factors influencing demand and supply are scrutinized, and it is noted that a number of these will operate only over long periods because of the lead-times involved on both sides. At the same time the chapter identifies some short-term flexibilities, before drawing on recent major studies to discuss possible features of the evolution and pattern of uranium supplies in the future. A number of uncertainties make precise analysis impossible, but it is shown that in the longer term a crucial role could be played by uranium-conserving technologies, particularly by the fast reactor. The evolution of a political framework within which international trade in uranium can develop in a stable manner will also be of prime importance. (author)