Exploring the effect of air pollution on settlement intentions from migrants: Evidence from China

Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) from 2015 to 2017, this paper uses IV-Probit model to investigate the effects of air pollution on migrants' settlement intentions in China. The results show that: First, air pollution has a significant and negative effect on intentions in settling down of the migrants. Specifically, when the concentration of PM_2.5 increases by 1 μg/m³, the probability of migrants settling down in the city which they have moved to for work or business will significantly decrease by 1.89%. Second, there is heterogeneity in the effects of air pollution on migrants' settlement intentions. In detail, the sensitivity to air pollution is higher among female groups, who have higher education levels and prefer better air quality in the living place to settle down, and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between age and settlement intentions. On the one hand, the conclusion of this paper enriches the relevant theoretical achievements of air pollution and migration. On the other hand, it also has a high reference value for developing more reasonable policies related to urban environmental governance and labor mobility.