Denmark's greenhouse gas projections until 2012

This report presents the results of a project financed by the Danish Energy Agency. The purpose of the project is to make 'with measures' projections of the emissions from Danish sources of the greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. The 'with measures' projection encompas currently implemented and adopted policies and measures. The time period covered is from 1972, the first year detailed Danish energy statistics were produced, until the first commitment period (2002-2012) under the Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Convention. Estimations of HFCs, PFCs and SF6-emissions and projections have not been carried out in this project, but are included for the purpose of full greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting. These estimations cover only the period from 1990 until 2008-2012. The last year with historic information is 1999. Only emissions caused by human activities are included in the calculation. However, it can sometimes be difficult to draw the borderline between emissions from nature and anthropogenic emissions. Due to difference between the methodology used in this project and the methodology (CORINAIR) used by the National Environmental Research Institute for the purpose of annual reporting the estimated emissions presented for the period 1990-1999 may deviate from the official emission estimates report to the EU and the Climate Convention (UNFCCC). Therefore the GHG emission estimates presented in this report for the period until 2000 should only be seen as an illustration of the order of magnitude. This is also the case for the parts of the trend analyses, which are based on the historic data coming from this project. The description of the emissions in the report is structured according to the IPCC sectors: 1) Energy. 2) Industrial processes. 3) Agriculture. 4) Land use change and forestry. 5) Waste. The NMVOC emission from solvent use and other sources is included as a souce of CO2 emission. A separate chapter is dedicated to each of these sectors. However, the report starts with a summary of the emissions with a section for each of the pollutants treated. At the end of each of these section the main differences between the present calculation and the values in Denmark's Second National Communication on Climate Change are described shortly. For each of the pollutants the development of the emissions in the period 1972-2012 and the various emission targets in Danish sector plants or international conventions are shown on a figure. Below the figures the emissions for the main emitting sectors are shown in a table. The years shown in these tables are not the same for all pollutants. When a column is marked with '2010' it means that the values in the columns are averaged over the first commitment period 2008-2012. It is not possible in this report to present all the data from the emission calculations. The data is contained in an EXEL notebook model. Appendix 1 contains a table with time-series for 1975-2012 for the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O for all emitting sectors. In Appendix 2 the results of the projections 2000-2012 are shown in the IPCC/CRF Sectoral Tables format in CO2 equivalents for each greenhouse gas and in total (only source and sink categories with greenhouse gas emissions or removals are shown). The model is structured as a set of worksheets for the primary energy consuming sector and the model contains similar sets for each of the pollutants. Additional sheets have been included for the relevant pollutants, where emissions originate from non-combustion processes. Each of these spreadsheets contains time-series for the emissions from each of the primary fuels consumed in the sector. (EHS)