Mapping distance-decay of premature mortality attributable to PM2.5-related traffic congestion

Highlights: • Our findings show health effects gradients across neighborhoods. • Mortality risk within buffer 0–100 m is 29.5% higher than for the buffer 101–200 m. • We estimated total premature mortality over Hamilton to be 73.10 (95%CI: 39.05; 82.11) deaths per year. • 41% of the total premature mortality each year in Hamilton occur within the buffer ≤100 m. Although several air pollution studies have examined the relationship between people living close to roadways and human health, we are unaware of studies that have examined the distance-decay of this effect based on a snapshot of congestion and focused on a micro-level traffic emission inventory. In this paper we estimate the distance-decay of premature mortality risk related to PM_2.5 emitted by traffic congestion in Hamilton, Canada, in 2011 We employ the Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) traffic assignment algorithm to estimate congested travel times for each road link in our study area. Next, we used EPA's MOVES model to estimate mass of PM_2.5, and then R-line dispersion model to predict concentration of PM_2.5. Finally, we apply Integrated Exposure Response Function (IERF) to estimate PM_2.5-related premature mortality at 100 m × 100 m grid resolution. We estimated total premature mortality over Hamilton to be 73.10 (95%CI: 39.05; 82.11) deaths per year. We observed that the proximity to a roadway increases the risk of premature mortality and the strength of this risk decreases as buffer sizes are increased. For example, we estimated that the premature mortality risk within buffer 0–100 m is 29.5% higher than for the buffer 101–200 m, 179.3% higher than for the buffer 201–300 m, and 566% higher than for the buffer 301–400 m. Our study provides a new perspective on exposure increments from traffic congestion. In particular, our findings show health effects gradients across neighborhoods, capturing microscale near-road exposure up to 2000 m of the roadway. Results from this research can be useful for policymakers to develop new strategies for the challenges of regulating transportation, land use, and air pollution.