Study on Competitive Exporting Price-forecast of the SMART in the U.S

In line with this, the U.S. has a renewed interest in SMRs rather than large reactors. Nothing, however, has been implemented yet. The only SMRs under construction are in Russia: the first floating nuclear plants. For the most part, the primary candidates to be the first land-based counterparts of Russia's are the SMART (System integrated Modular Advanced Reactor) reactors. The Korean SMART has been developed and licensed for standard design. In addition, the SMART reactor may be suited to countries, which have a small grid capacity, low population density, and decentralization power system such as the U.S. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a target price for the SMR market opportunities in the U.S., competing against the CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) which is currently a very attractive option for generating due to the shale innovation. Even though detailed cost estimates are not available, target price can be derived based on generally determining market price. This paper demonstrates the target exporting price of the SMART in the U.S. ranging from 3,091 - 4,011$/kWe depending on the scaling factor and carbon tax, assuming that discount rates are fixed. This value could be a target cost of construction, developing the U.S market whose demand of the SMART is potentially 4 units 2015 - 2035. Sensitivity analysis shows that the price goes up in proportion to the gas price, the capacity factor of the SMART, the overnight cost of CCGT, etc. More than anything else, this study reveals that carbon tax does not have much influence on the target price compared with those listed above. On the other hand, the price goes up in inverse proportion to the interest of the SMART, the capacity factor of CCGT, O and M costs of the SMART, and so on. For the price competitiveness, construction cost should first be reduced because construction cost is the largest component of LCOE as well as the effect of interest rate is the most sensitive for target price. Therefore, design simplification, shorter construction period, serial production and factory fabrication will be necessary. In addition, the company in charge of business should have enough financial resources as well as marketing. Aside from the result of sensitivity analysis of interest rate, this is because the IDC (Interest During Construction) generally accounts for about 10∼20% of total construction cost in nuclear plant project