Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results

Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs