Towards a low-carbon Mexican chemical industry

Highlights: • A BAU and a low carbon scenarios are constructed in MCI's energy end-use terms. • The implementation of 15 mitigation measures of greenhouse gases is analyzed. • 10 efficient energy measures and 5 renewable energy technologies are considered. • The proposed low carbon scenario generates a net economic benefit of $7.2 billion. • The low carbon scenario reduces 65% the cumulative GHG emissions from BAU scenario. In 2014, the Mexican Chemical Industry (MCI) energy consumption represented 13.5% of the industrial sector total consumption (211 PJ), being the industry with the second highest greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Mexico with 13.8 MtCO_2e. This article shows that in the medium and long term it is feasible to transform the MCI into a low-carbon industry. To prove this hypothesis, two scenarios are constructed in terms of the MCI's final energy uses: a business as usual (BAU) scenario and an alternative one, a low-carbon scenario which analyzes 15 GHG mitigation measures, 10 related to efficient energy use (EEU) and 5 associated with the implementation of renewable energy sources (RES). The results show that, when compared to the BAU scenario, the low-carbon scenario reduces the MCI's energy consumption by 63.5% in 2030 and by 78.5% in 2050, resulting in a cumulative total GHG emissions reduction of 65%. Additionally, the low-carbon scenario will not generate costs in the analyzed period; on the contrary, it would produce a global economic benefit above 7200 million USD (MUSD). Likewise, the results show that the implementation of this alternative scenario requires an incremental investment over 377 MUSD/year within the analysis period. Finally, implementing the proposed low-carbon scenario results in a significant modification of the MCI energy end-use structure.