Supply mix advice and recommendations : supply mix summary

Ontario's electricity sector is at one of its most challenging points in history. The system has less capacity than it did 12 years ago, and demand has increased because of population and economic growth. A projected province-wide shortfall in supply capacity is anticipated in the next 5 years, which will continue to grow over time. This report presented recommendations from the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) on options for the future development of Ontario's electricity system. The report was prepared as a response to the Minister of Energy's request for advice on the appropriate mix of electricity supply sources to satisfy the expected demand in Ontario, while taking into account conservation targets and new sources of renewable energy up to 2025. Many of the most attractive options for meeting base-load generation requirements entail long lead-times, and choices that focus only on immediate needs may foreclose more attractive options for the future. It was suggested that conservation and new renewable sources will meet Ontario's growth in demand for electricity by 2025. However, they will not replace the loss of capacity from the retirement of other supply sources such as nuclear and coal-fired generation stations. It was suggested that gas-fired generation be used to relieve transmission bottlenecks as well as for district energy and cogeneration. Recommendations included maximizing conservation and pursuing an aggressive course for renewables within current constraints while looking at ways to reduce constraints. It was suggested that a smart gas strategy should be adopted that takes advantage of the benefits of natural gas fired generation but limits exposure to its price and supply risks. Supply options that need long lead times such as nuclear, large-scale wind generation, hydro imports and gasification were also recommended. 4 figs