The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical open-quotes command and controlclose quotes infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The open-quotes command and controlclose quotes model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programs have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions)