Impact of teleconnection between Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño at normal (neutral) phase condition on the Java Monsoon rainfall variability

The meteorological surface parameter over the Maritime Continent (MC), especially rainfall anomalies are very important to be investigated due to their impacts on the hydrometeorological hazards phenomena. Although, this region is effected by the Monsoon system, but another phenomena called as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño are suspected has a great effects in controlling the rainfall anomalies too. In this present study, we investigated the upcoming of IOD and El-Niño (represented as SST Nino 3.4) index, especially from October 2018 to February 2019. According to the prediction derived from POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia) model, Australia, that is issued by September 8, 2018, we found that those indexes (IOD and SST Nino 3.4) are located "near" the normal (neutral) phase condition. It means that Monsoon will become a pre-dominant peak oscillation during that period, although by assuming the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) also located at "near" normal condition. By using the IOD, SST Nino 3.4, and the CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) monthly rainfall data for period of 37 years observation over Java Island, we found that rainy season is already started since December 2017. The transitional season (from rainy to dry season) is started from March to May 2018. The dry season itself is already started since June to August 2018. Basically, we found the second transitional season that is started from September to November 2018. Since, this study is mainly concerned to rainfall anomalies prediction when IOD and El-Nino is located "near" normal (neutral) phase position, we suspect that the early rainy season this year will be started at December 2018, and continue to rainy season at January and February 2019. Those all prediction will be working well by assuming that teleconnection between IOD and El Nino up to February 2019 still located "near" normal phase condition/position. (paper)