Oil price movements and the Arabian Gulf economies: a sectoral analysis

Six of the Arabian Gulf countries are founding members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and are known as GCC member states. Jointly, in 1997, they held close to 46 per cent of the world crude oil reserves and derived a major part of their national income from oil revenues. The study analyzes the response of these states to the changes in world oil prices over two major time periods: a 1972-1980 period (Phase I) of steadily increasing prices and a 1981-1996 period (Phase II) of steadily declining and then weakly recovering prices. Phase I is characterized in the member States by an unprecedented economic boom and Phase II by an adjustment to strong recessionary pressures. (Author)