Greenhouse gas emissions from the future European power generation system

On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Paul Scherrer Institute has performed a study on greenhouse gas emissions from future (until 2050) European electricity production. The study is based on forecasts made by Eurelectric, an association of European utilities. These forecasts were extended to 2050 (standard scenario). In a sensitivity analysis, two scenarios elaborated by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analyses (IIASA) were analysed; one of these scenarios is carbon-intensive, the other one relatively low in carbon emissions. These forecasts are complemented by analyses concerning the development of power plant technologies and possible changes in the fuel chains. The results show a significant reduction of specific greenhouse gas emissions over time: in 2000, average emissions for the UCTE are 522 g CO2-eq. / kWh, until 2050 they drop to 331 g CO2-eq. / kWh in the standard scenario (both numbers refer to electricity from the medium-voltage net). In sensitivity analyses it was shown that the substantial uncertainties concerning new renewable energy sources have only little influence on the final result. On the other hand the results for the sensitivity analyses with the IIASA scenarios differ considerably from those in the standard scenario. Emissions are 39% above and 32% below those in the standard scenario, respectively. (author)