World energy outlook: how to share the efforts to be achieved by 2030?

This conference was organized a month after the publication by the International Energy Agency (IEA) of the 2007 World Energy Outlook (WEO) study. The energy situation at that time was marked by the repercussions on the environment and on the security of supplies in relation with the accelerated development of China and India. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given at this conference. The first presentation by Fatih Birol, Chief Economist at the IEA, is entitled 'World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights'. It presents the Cooperation with China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Energy Research Institute (ERI), and with India's Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) for the establishment of energy scenarios. Then the different scenarios are reviewed: Reference Scenario, Alternative Policy Scenario and 450 Stabilisation Case, High Growth Scenario (China/India). Finally, a full global update of projections (all scenarios) is presented and the impact of China and India on global economy, energy markets and environment is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: - Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; - China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size; - Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system; - New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution; - Next 10 years are critical (The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid, Technology will be 'locked-in' for decades, Growing tightness in oil and gas markets); - Challenge is global so solutions must be global. The second presentation by Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED) is entitled 'The WEO 2007 A few comments about the Emerging Giants... and us'. The presentation focusses on 4 points: - What implications of higher growth in the Asian Giants on the world economy through higher pressure on energy resources; - Economic questions about the Alter scenario and the 450 ppm case; - Some words about the climate regime and the rate and direction of investments; - the methodological challenges and substantive issues. (J.S.)