The International Energy Workshop: results of the 1997 poll

The International Energy Workshop consists of a network of analysts from across the world concerned with international energy issues. Since 1981, the IEW has been organising an annual poll of projections of crude oil prices, economic growth, primary energy consumption and production, the energy trade and, beginning in the early 1990s, energy-related carbon emissions. Submitted projections are for 1990-2020 in ten-year steps; recently, 2050 and 2100 have been added, to cater for climate change scenarios. The IEW poll encourages the submission of responses for five world regions. This paper presents a summary of findings in the 1997 poll. Highlights include the following. The poll medians for 1997 suggest a crude oil price, in 1990 purchasing power, of $20/b in 2000, $27/b in 2010 and $28/b in 2020. Unlike for 2000 and 2010, the 2020 figure diverges considerably from that of the 1996 poll, which registered $39/b. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are not expected to be major global oil exporters until 2010 at least, while China will become a net importer in 2000. OPEC will meet about half global demand by 2020. World primary energy consumption is expected to increase from 8,500 mtoe in 1990 to 13,000 mtoe in 2020. In this period, oil will lose almost seven percentage points of market share, while natural gas will almost double its absolute contribution. OPEC's natural gas exports are projected to rise from 55 mtoe in 1990 to 300 mtoe in 2020. Finally, the paper compares different projections for decarbonisation, that is, the decline rates of the carbon intensity of GDP and of primary energy supply. It notes that, according to business-as-usual projections, the OECD is way off target in meeting the emissions-reductions goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change