The revolution of shale oils in the United States. The business model is being tested

This report proposes an overview of LTO (Light Tight Oil or shale oil) production in the USA, and examines the consequences of oil price fall on its future level. The first part gives an assessment of five years of this revolution which follows the shale gas revolution. It addresses the most remarkable evolutions: spectacular development of production, decrease of oil imports, increase of oil product exports, and a move towards oil independence. The second part highlights some peculiarities of shale oils and of the resulting business model which is much different from the Exploration/Production model for conventional oil. It analyses the LTO economy and breakeven prices required for a continued investment. Technological advances which are at the basis of this revolution are addressed, and expected improvements on a short or medium term are described. The main financial indicators are then presented as the financial situation of LTO producers is a crucial factor for future investment levels. The last chapter reports the study of the impact of price decrease on capital expenditures (CAPEX) of American producers, and on the drilling activity. It seems that LTO production will resist to price decrease