Ademe's contribution to the elaboration of energetic visions for 2030-2050 - Synthesis with macroeconomic evaluation

During 2012, the Ademe Agency mobilized its technical and economic departments on the 'Vision 2030-2050' energy forecasting exercise, which is summarized in this document. This work, carried out in-house, enables the Agency to propose proactive energy and climate scenarios and climate scenarios focused on controlling energy consumption and developing the renewable energy supply. This foresight exercise thus identifies a possible path for the energy transition in France, meeting environmental challenges and identifying the necessary adaptations to France's energy production facilities and green growth sectors. This foresight exercise identifies a possible path for France's energy transition. It is based on two distinct time horizons and methodologies: a vision which, starting today, seeks to achieve maximum energy savings and renewable energies development until 2030; and a normative vision that aims to achieve Factor 4 by 2050, i.e. a 4-fold reduction in greenhouse gas emissions generated in France compared to 1990 levels. The analysis presented in this document is essentially based on an exploration of different scenarios with ambitious energy and environmental objectives, under conditions of technical, economic and social feasibility. This analysis is complemented by a macro-economic analysis. The proposed vision, particularly for 2030, is not based on a radical change in lifestyle, a decline in comfort, or on the gamble of major technological breakthroughs. It shows that, right now, with the technologies and organizational changes that are within our reach, the way to achieving our long-term objectives is open. The scenario is also based on assumptions of strong economic growth (1.8% per year) and demographic growth (69 million inhabitants in 2030 and 74 million in 2050). The 2050 scenario shows that factor 4 can be achieved with a sustained growth