Iran and the nuclear: the Persian torments

The author addresses the Iranian nuclear crisis within an historic perspective, and states that this crisis has its roots in the recent Iranian history, but has deeper origins before the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In a first part, he draws a portrait of Iran by opposing current myths and realities like Persia and an actual ethnic diversity, an oil-based wealth in a context of under-development, tyranny and an actual political complexity. He also analyses the Iranian geo-strategy and its recent evolutions, the relationships and attitudes towards the three Satans (USA, France and Israel), and describes the main evolutions of the Iranian defence, notably after 9/11. The second part describes the long evolution of the Iranian nuclear programme, from its beginning at the time of the Shah, until now (projects, programmes and realities of the Iranian electronuclear industry), and recalls the different steps of the nuclear crisis between 2002 and 2006. The third part is a prospective one. The author discusses several aspects of the conflict (power balance, rumours and threats, sanctions and military scenarios, Iranian retaliation capacities) and discusses what a nuclear Iran would be (its capacities, its objectives, geo-strategic consequences of a nuclear Iran, and remaining opportunities for negotiations)