A probabilistic analysis of rapid boron dilution scenarios

A probabilistic and deterministic analysis of a rapid boron dilution scenario related to reactor restart was performed. The event is initiated by a loss of off-site power during the startup dilution process. The automatic restart of the charging pump in such cases may lead to the accumulation of a diluted slug of water in the lower plenum. The restart of the reactor coolant pumps may send the diluted slug through the core, adding sufficient reactivity to overcome the shutdown margin and cause a power excursion. The concern is that the power excursion is sufficient in certain circumstances to cause fuel damage. The estimated core damage frequency based on the scoping analysis is 1.0--3.0E-05/yr for the plants analyzed. These are relatively significant values when compared to desirable goals. The analysis contained assumptions related to plant specific design characteristics which may lead to non-conservative estimates. The most important conservative assumptions were that mixing of the injected diluted water is insignificant and that fuel damage occurs when the slug passes through the core