Japan's energy sector beyond Fukushima. What direction for a sustainable energy future?

The 11 March 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster will create long-term challenges for Japans energy security. Energy shortage is a major threat because all facets of the archipelago's economy and society are dependent upon reliable energy supply. Within this context and based on a historical institutionalist approach, this paper reflects on the long-term implications of the disaster for Japan's post-Fukushima energy policies. It argues that institutional change is incremental and path dependent for four major reasons: the massive costs of a major move to alternative energy sources; the rising importance of emission reduction and climate change mitigation policies; vested interests in the status quo of a centralised large-scale energy supply system; and the massive increase in resource nationalism in East Asia as a result of continuing geopolitical tensions. However, promoting energy efficiency, encouraging energy-saving behaviour and focusing on decentralized renewable energy development could help to reduce Japan's energy vulnerability.