Solar PV mini-grids versus large-scale embedded PV generation: A case study of Uttar Pradesh (India)

Highlights: • Investigates viability of solar mini-grids using provisions of the Uttar Pradesh mini-grid policy. • Compares solar mini-grids viability with MW-scale grid-tied PV systems. • Shows that mini-grids are not viable without subsidies or supports. • Large rural PV generation projects are more attractive to private investors. • Flexible support and risk management systems are required to promote mini-grids. -- Abstract: Despite significant grid expansion during the last decade, globally India has the highest number of people lacking access to electricity. Mini-grid has been suggested as a possible electrification option and the new mini-grid policy of the state of Uttar Pradesh has attracted global attention. Relatedly, the drive for grid extension restricts off-grid areas to very remote locations and enhances the risks for mini-grid projects. Simultaneously, the pledge for increasing renewable energy share in the power supply mix opens the possibility of large-scale embedded renewable energy generation in the rural areas. This paper investigates the viability of solar PV-based mini-grids using a discounted cash flow analysis and considers the UP-policy prescriptions to explore the case of a megawatt (MW)-scale grid-connected solar PV under a power purchase agreement. It identifies the viability support requirements for both cases under different business conditions. It finds that mini-grids are not a viable proposition if the tariff prescribed in UP is used and that other cost minimising support (such as capital subsidy or low interest debt or an output-based subsidy) would be required to attract private investments. Large-scale solar projects, on the other hand, are more viable and can be an attractive proposition for rural electrification in the Indian context.