Estimates of future regional heavy oil production at three production rates--background information for assessing effects in the US refining industry

This report is one of a series of publications from a project considering the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil (10 degree to 20 degree API gravity inclusive) production being conducted for the US Department of Energy. The report includes projections of future heavy oil production at three production levels: 900,000; 500,000; and 300,000 BOPD above the current 1992 heavy oil production level of 750,000 BOPD. These free market scenario projections include time frames and locations. Production projections through a second scenario were developed to examine which heavy oil areas would be developed if significant changes in the US petroleum industry occurred. The production data helps to define the possible constraints (impact) of increased heavy oil production on the US refining industry (the subject of a future report). Constraints include a low oil price and low rate of return. Heavy oil has high production, transportation, and refining cost per barrel as compared to light oil. The resource is known, but the right mix of technology and investment is required to bring about significant expansion of heavy oil production in the US