Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research

Highlights: • Sectoral- and provincial-level peak of CO₂ emissions in China. • Energy-extensive industries cap emissions prior to services, transport, building. • Advanced provinces cap emissions ahead of less developed, energy-producing provinces. • Sectoral- and provincial-specific pathways to peak and reduce emissions for China. • Four critical topics requiring further study. -- Abstract: Whether China can prevent its CO₂ emissions from increasing by 2030 is critical for achieving the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming below 2 °C. Understanding the growth and potential peak of CO₂ emissions in various sectors and various provinces of China has great significance to formulate more targeted strategies on capping emissions on a national level. This issue has recently attracted increasing attention but remains far from being resolved. Therefore, this article critically reviews the current literature regarding sectoral- and provincial-level CO₂ emission projections for China, to determine up-to-date study progresses and guide future studies. It has been concluded that China's various sectors and provinces present large gaps with respect to the time and the quantity to peak their CO₂ emissions. Energy-extensive heavy industry sectors, such as cement, iron and steel, and electricity sectors, take the lead in capping CO₂ emissions compared with service, transport, and building sectors. In addition, the eastern provinces are expected to achieve the peak of CO₂ emissions prior to the central and western provinces, while more economically and technically advanced provinces reach this peak ahead of less developed and energy-producing provinces. Based on the significantly different dynamics and drivers of CO₂ emissions, sectoral- and provincial-specific strategies on emission abatement are outlined for China. Moreover, four critical topics are highlighted for future study, including improvement of study methodology, detailed examination of CO₂ emission trends in several key sectors and provinces, and in-depth exploration of the far-reaching impacts of capping CO₂ emissions in China and associated countermeasures.