Climate change and the expected impact in water resources in Albania

The climate change scenarios for Albania are prepared by using MAGICC/SCENGEN software, by CRU/UEA. MAGICC is run to calculate the global changes by using the mid- range IS92a emission scenario as the reference scenario and SRESA1, SRESA2, SRESB1 and SRESB2 as policy scenarios. SCENGEN is run using 6 of the available standardized GCM global warming patterns (HadCM2, UKTR, ECHAM4, CSIRO-TR, UIUC-EQ, GFDLLO). A composite pattern is constructed by using these 6 GSM altogether for each scenario. The climate change scenario for Albania leads to an annual increase in temperature up to 3.6o C and decrease in precipitation to -12.5% by 2100 related to 1990. Severe summers with high temperatures (up to 4.10o C) and low precipitation (up to -27%) are expected to meet over the territory that may cause negative or positive impacts. Autumn seems to play the second role in annual changes. Milder winters and warmer springs are expected as well. A decrease in the long term mean annual and seasonal runoff has to be expected for the whole territory and for three time horizons (years 2025, 2050, 2100). It would affect the surface water flow, reducing its amount. Under reduced surface flow and increased evaporation, the storage of reservoirs will decrease, which will effect the energy production by hydropower stations. Because of the reduction of stream flows in the wetlands, western part of Albania would experience both increasing demands for water and reduced supply of water, which would decrease wetland area. Other consequences of expected warming include not only changes in total water amount and levels, but also erosion of riverbeds, and modification of turbidity and sediment load. (Author)