Effective analyses of the risks and benefits for energy alternatives

Many studies have attempted to compare the risks and benefits of alternative sources of energy production with mixed degrees of success. A review has been made of many of these studies to determine what is valid and useful in such studies, and what should be discarded. Based upon this review and critique, an approach has been developed that provides for meaningful analysis and presentation of risks and benefits of alternative energy systems for specific purposes and audiences. Results of our review show that there is no such thing as a universal risk analysis of alternative energy systems, rather there is an array of different risk analyses directed as a whole spectrum of different uses and audiences. Improper use of a risk analysis for an application different than that for which the risk analysis was made, errant use of value judgement for aggregation of results, overuse of aggregation, and improper matching of the capability of the analysis to the use intended are just a few of the factors that have caused most of the analyses we have reviewed to be less than useful. We have developed a policy analysis structure for addressing the risks and benefits of alternate energy systems that starts at the top (namely, specifying the uses and target audiences of the analysis) and works downward to 1) determine the precision of results needed for a decision, 2) whether it's possible to achieve the precision needed, and 3) how the results may be made meaningful to the target audience whether they be the technical community, policy and decision makers, or the general public. This top-down analysis approach only requires data to be acquired to a level that either resolves the problem or makes evident to the target audience the value judgements that no amount of quantitative analysis can expect to resolve. The top-down approach leads to a multiplicity of sublevel risk analyses which are retained for the audience in an understandable manner. Interval estimates of risk are used in each case in a manner that makes uncertainty both visible and manageable. (author). 6 tabs