Safety goals for nuclear power

The key policy question in managing hazardous technologies is often some variant of How safe is safe enough. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has recently broached this topic by adopting safety goals defining acceptable risk levels for nuclear power plants. These goals are analyzed here with a general theory of standard setting (Fischhoff, 1983) which asks: (1) Are standards an appropriate policy tool in this case. (2) Can the Commission's safety philosophy be defended. (3) Do the operational goals capture that philosophy. The anlaysis shows the safety goals proposal to be sophisticated in some respects, incomplete in others. More generally, it points to difficulties with the concept of acceptable risk and any attempt to build policy instruments around it. Although focused on the NRC's safety goals, the present analysis is a prototype of what can be learned by similarly detailed consideration of other standards, not only for nuclear power but also for other hazardous technologies, as well as for issues unrelated to safety