Assessment of the risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by train

The risk analysis model is applied to the assessment of the risk of Pu releases due to transportation accidents and package misclosure and degradation. The transport system and accident environment are described and release sequences postulated. Results are related to the early 1980s, when Pu shipments are expected to be more frequent (18 metric tons Pu shipped by rail per year, average shipment distance of 1530 miles, regulations and shipping systems same as in 1974, PuO2 shipped in 6M containers and liquid Pu(NO3)4 in L-10 containers, with 230 kg in a 90-container 6M shipment and 136 kg in a 68-container L-10 shipment). It is estimated that PuO2 shipments will be involved in an accident every 6 years and Pu(NO3)4 shipments every 3.5 years. Consequences are expressed as risk spectra. Loss of thermal insulation followed by exposure to a fire was found to be the most significant risk contributor for the liquid shipments. Risk in rail shipment of Pu was found to be similar to that in truck shipment, although for the liquid shipments, there is a difference in the importance of factors contributing to the risk